"The government has announced on Thursday (13 Jan 2011) the fourth round of property cooling measures to 'maintain a stable and sustainable property market'.
They include:
1) Increasing the holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD) from the current three years to four years;
2) Raising the SSD rates to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent of consideration for residential properties which are bought on or after Friday, and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year of purchase respectively;
3) Lower the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit to 50 per cent on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS for property purchasers who are not individuals
4) Lower the LTV limit on housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore from 70 per cent to 60 per cent for property purchasers who are individuals with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new housing purchase.
The measures will take effect on Friday. "
Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The news is finally released after some long anticipation. It is going to be a hot topic for the next few days. I am rather surprised that they are releasing it so early and implementing it almost immediately. It looks like the government is really hot behind the heels of property speculators. It is certainly going to irritate some investors and put off many people out of the property market. But, it's better to do it now then later. Remember, it's a year of the General Election. This is expected to be held after the 2nd half of the year. It is understandable for the government to impose the rule early to allow negative sentiments to subside in 6 months. Afterall, people would start to realize and appreciate that their dear government is doing it for everyone's good.
If you have been picking up the newspapers daily for the last couple of months, you would have realized that many pleasant news and plans are being published. Big plans like rejuvenating old heartlands like Hougang and Balestier, new MRT extension to Tuas area and big Budget surplus to benefit most lower income people. In my neighbourhood, there are ongoing sprucing up of roads and pavements, and even the HDB blocks around getting a new fresh coat of paint after 5 years.
I guess everyone should know what to do when the time comes, right? Who else can we choose...?
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Market Outlook for 2011
We went through a topsy turvy year of 2010. The first half of the year appeared to continue the gloom of 2009 where there was much speculation of a double dip recession happening in US. There was sudden news about Dubai economy nearly falling apart. Europe was not spared the rod either with Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain dragging the Eurozone into credit crisis. In the second part of the year, things appeared to look better with better employment figures and improving home prices in the US. What's more, the Barrack Obama administration, inspired by its first stimulus package during the global depression in 2008, decided to further boost its slow moving economy by injecting another US$900 billion (dubbed QE2), to buy up treasury bonds. The immediate reaction to that was the euphoria felt by stock markets in the world. On the other side of the world, is China, still enjoying an ever red hot economy. The whole of East Asia was enjoying the spillover effects from China. Global investors, attracted by the turbocharged economy of Asia, started pouring hot money from the US into the region.
In Singapore for 2010, we have seen phenomenal economic growth of 14.7%, a figure not seen since for the last 20 years. We have also seen an unstoppable rise in property prices, passed the last peak in 2007. So what lies ahead for us in 2011?
If you have been following news and analysts' forcasts, most are still bullish about the world economy. The IMF forecasts that the world economy would grow at 4.3% for 2011 compared to 4.2% for 2010. Although most are painting a brighter picture, they are putting words of caution with the Eurozone crisis still hovering and US still struggling to pull itself out of its stagnating economy.
Inflation will be the hottest topic for the year while crude prices are expected to reach the high of US$100 per barrel, a record breached in 2007. Signs of these have already shown up before 2010 came to a closure. China, has already taken measures to increase interest rates to curb rising prices of its commodities. My Hong Kong friend cited that in recent months, mainland chinese are swarming into the territories to buy up daily necessities like fruits, vegetables and diapers with their appreciating Yuan against HK dollars. For those car owners in Singapore, you would have experienced at least 3 times of petrol price hike in the last 2 months.
How about the red hot property in Singapore? It has surpassed the previous peak in 2007. The Singapore goverment has already put in several measures to weed out speculations. With still gravity defying property prices, the government is expected to come in soon again to further dampen the speculation mood. Latest index has shown that HDB prices are still on the rise, while mass market condos are easing. Landed houses and high-end apartments have just started its rise. The government has reiterated that it wants an affordable home to all Singaporeans. It has the utmost duty to moderate home prices and while allowing them to beat inflation.
As an investor, I update myself with news, check on stock market behaviour and network with industry players to be aware of what is going on around.
Let us take a simple view of the Straits Times Index (STI) performance over 2010 in order to forecast a 2011 behaviour. Refer to the topmost chart seen above. This is the STI performance between June and Dec 2010. If we draw 2 parallel blue lines to coincide with most highs and lows, they look clearly in an ascending pattern. This is what Chartists call an uptrend. If you refer to the end of the line (highlighted by the blue eclipse) which shows a downward direction, it is still not at a dangerous low. A dangerous low will be when it is crossing the lower parallel line. A 2011 market will be expected to be choppy. If the STI line remains within the window of the parallel lines, it would then be a healthy uptrend sign.
Chartists believe that market is always the first to digest information and reacts immediately to it. Chart patterns do not behave randomly but to some specific patterns that can be plotted out. However, as retail investors like us, although it can help us to forecast the future, we should not be too engrossed in only one camp of thought. We should open our eyes and ears to look for other indicators.
In my point of view, the 2011 will await signals on how US will help itself recover from recession and how the Eurozone crisis will unfold. The market will continue its 2010 behaviour when it was very sensitive to any grim news. China economy will also be closely tracked for any changes from impact of its policy change.
As for the Singapore property outlook, it is rather certain that the government is coming in with more measures to cool down the sector, as it has mentioned in its previous move. However, it certainly does not intend to kill the market. It has to moderate the growth to beat inflation and yet cannot allow speculations to create a property bubble, like what happened in the US during the sub-prime crisis. Too much hot money has been pouring into Asia from new found wealth around the region. With new immigrants also swarming into Singapore, the government is certainly right to regulate on property as it is one of the core investment engines for investors. But do remember that the General Elections is drawing near and the government cannot do absurd measures to its voters' ire. It has to ensure the economy grows healthily and at a moderate pace, get a mandate from its election win and then go back to work as usual.
In my view, the property, although has formed a new high, is not going down anytime soon. Rather the government is putting in measures to prevent it from spiking further up. If you look at the previous troughs in 1997, 2003 and 2008, they coincided with global economic downturns. If the world economy does not meet its nemesis in the few years ahead, the Singapore property is unlikely to see another slum. In fact, we will meet more new highs before we see the next global recession. This phenomenom will be attributed to the ongoing new money and new immigrants we are witnessing today.
In Singapore for 2010, we have seen phenomenal economic growth of 14.7%, a figure not seen since for the last 20 years. We have also seen an unstoppable rise in property prices, passed the last peak in 2007. So what lies ahead for us in 2011?
If you have been following news and analysts' forcasts, most are still bullish about the world economy. The IMF forecasts that the world economy would grow at 4.3% for 2011 compared to 4.2% for 2010. Although most are painting a brighter picture, they are putting words of caution with the Eurozone crisis still hovering and US still struggling to pull itself out of its stagnating economy.
Inflation will be the hottest topic for the year while crude prices are expected to reach the high of US$100 per barrel, a record breached in 2007. Signs of these have already shown up before 2010 came to a closure. China, has already taken measures to increase interest rates to curb rising prices of its commodities. My Hong Kong friend cited that in recent months, mainland chinese are swarming into the territories to buy up daily necessities like fruits, vegetables and diapers with their appreciating Yuan against HK dollars. For those car owners in Singapore, you would have experienced at least 3 times of petrol price hike in the last 2 months.
How about the red hot property in Singapore? It has surpassed the previous peak in 2007. The Singapore goverment has already put in several measures to weed out speculations. With still gravity defying property prices, the government is expected to come in soon again to further dampen the speculation mood. Latest index has shown that HDB prices are still on the rise, while mass market condos are easing. Landed houses and high-end apartments have just started its rise. The government has reiterated that it wants an affordable home to all Singaporeans. It has the utmost duty to moderate home prices and while allowing them to beat inflation.
As an investor, I update myself with news, check on stock market behaviour and network with industry players to be aware of what is going on around.
Let us take a simple view of the Straits Times Index (STI) performance over 2010 in order to forecast a 2011 behaviour. Refer to the topmost chart seen above. This is the STI performance between June and Dec 2010. If we draw 2 parallel blue lines to coincide with most highs and lows, they look clearly in an ascending pattern. This is what Chartists call an uptrend. If you refer to the end of the line (highlighted by the blue eclipse) which shows a downward direction, it is still not at a dangerous low. A dangerous low will be when it is crossing the lower parallel line. A 2011 market will be expected to be choppy. If the STI line remains within the window of the parallel lines, it would then be a healthy uptrend sign.
Chartists believe that market is always the first to digest information and reacts immediately to it. Chart patterns do not behave randomly but to some specific patterns that can be plotted out. However, as retail investors like us, although it can help us to forecast the future, we should not be too engrossed in only one camp of thought. We should open our eyes and ears to look for other indicators.
In my point of view, the 2011 will await signals on how US will help itself recover from recession and how the Eurozone crisis will unfold. The market will continue its 2010 behaviour when it was very sensitive to any grim news. China economy will also be closely tracked for any changes from impact of its policy change.
As for the Singapore property outlook, it is rather certain that the government is coming in with more measures to cool down the sector, as it has mentioned in its previous move. However, it certainly does not intend to kill the market. It has to moderate the growth to beat inflation and yet cannot allow speculations to create a property bubble, like what happened in the US during the sub-prime crisis. Too much hot money has been pouring into Asia from new found wealth around the region. With new immigrants also swarming into Singapore, the government is certainly right to regulate on property as it is one of the core investment engines for investors. But do remember that the General Elections is drawing near and the government cannot do absurd measures to its voters' ire. It has to ensure the economy grows healthily and at a moderate pace, get a mandate from its election win and then go back to work as usual.
In my view, the property, although has formed a new high, is not going down anytime soon. Rather the government is putting in measures to prevent it from spiking further up. If you look at the previous troughs in 1997, 2003 and 2008, they coincided with global economic downturns. If the world economy does not meet its nemesis in the few years ahead, the Singapore property is unlikely to see another slum. In fact, we will meet more new highs before we see the next global recession. This phenomenom will be attributed to the ongoing new money and new immigrants we are witnessing today.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Singapore Entrepreneur - Entrepreneur turned Investor
Hi Guys,
I have been out of action for quite a while now. I have finally left a company which I set up 10 years ago. Now, it is in good hands of a new management team. Ever since, I had not looked back and have been looking for a new chapter of my life. Enriched with many years of business and investment experience, I am now working towards a new direction towards investment.
I have burnt tremendous amount of energy and time into my company over the last 10 years. The blood and sweat I have contributed is like 20 or 30 years equivalence of any other job. It is by no mean feat to build a company from scratch to a successful company. Understandably, I went through a period of emptiness and directionless when I left. I explored many avenues of new businesses. At one point, I was even conned of my money for dabbling into F&B business. I went through many bad patches over the period that I thought dark clouds were following me wherever I go. I even changed some Feng Shui in my house to hopefully chase away the bad spell that was daunting on me.
I recalled that some of the close people around me fell into depression when they lost their jobs during recessions. I told myself that my mind was still clear and will stay sane and keep myself occupied with activities. I started to take up investment and self-improvement courses to motivate myself.
After more than half a year of a stagnated life, I have finally found back my own self and is currently pushing myself towards a new direction.
I realized the whole problem was all about myself. I had been a technical and management person in my job. It's like a occupational hazzard where you keep doing the same thing for many years till it becomes a habit. During my job, I had to crack my brain on technical issues everyday and organise my team and assign jobs for them. When all these were gone, I became lost. My mum, my wife nor my kids didn't understand me when I told them about technical things. They also didn't respond like my guys did when I tried assigning jobs to them. The world was staring emptily back at me. What was I supposed to do?
After much pondering, I started to shift my mentality. Instead of feeling nostalgic of what I used to do daily, I should appreciate on what business knowledge I have gained over the years. The best MBA course in the world couldn't have equipped me with such a deep business knowledge I have today. Since I have this invaluable asset in my brain, why not I capitalize on it?
Today, I declare that I am an Entrepreneur turned Investor. My main interest in investing is in equities and property. Thanks to some gurus in the trade for sharing with me, I am now more ready to go into this direction.
Every person in his entire life goes through ups and downs. It is up to the individual to manage his emotions and thinking. Don't blame in on luck. Everyone is in control of his own destiny.
I have been out of action for quite a while now. I have finally left a company which I set up 10 years ago. Now, it is in good hands of a new management team. Ever since, I had not looked back and have been looking for a new chapter of my life. Enriched with many years of business and investment experience, I am now working towards a new direction towards investment.
I have burnt tremendous amount of energy and time into my company over the last 10 years. The blood and sweat I have contributed is like 20 or 30 years equivalence of any other job. It is by no mean feat to build a company from scratch to a successful company. Understandably, I went through a period of emptiness and directionless when I left. I explored many avenues of new businesses. At one point, I was even conned of my money for dabbling into F&B business. I went through many bad patches over the period that I thought dark clouds were following me wherever I go. I even changed some Feng Shui in my house to hopefully chase away the bad spell that was daunting on me.
I recalled that some of the close people around me fell into depression when they lost their jobs during recessions. I told myself that my mind was still clear and will stay sane and keep myself occupied with activities. I started to take up investment and self-improvement courses to motivate myself.
After more than half a year of a stagnated life, I have finally found back my own self and is currently pushing myself towards a new direction.
I realized the whole problem was all about myself. I had been a technical and management person in my job. It's like a occupational hazzard where you keep doing the same thing for many years till it becomes a habit. During my job, I had to crack my brain on technical issues everyday and organise my team and assign jobs for them. When all these were gone, I became lost. My mum, my wife nor my kids didn't understand me when I told them about technical things. They also didn't respond like my guys did when I tried assigning jobs to them. The world was staring emptily back at me. What was I supposed to do?
After much pondering, I started to shift my mentality. Instead of feeling nostalgic of what I used to do daily, I should appreciate on what business knowledge I have gained over the years. The best MBA course in the world couldn't have equipped me with such a deep business knowledge I have today. Since I have this invaluable asset in my brain, why not I capitalize on it?
Today, I declare that I am an Entrepreneur turned Investor. My main interest in investing is in equities and property. Thanks to some gurus in the trade for sharing with me, I am now more ready to go into this direction.
Every person in his entire life goes through ups and downs. It is up to the individual to manage his emotions and thinking. Don't blame in on luck. Everyone is in control of his own destiny.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Singapore Entrepreneur - Blue Ocean Strategy
I particularly like the definition of this strategy which is described by W.Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne, Professors in strategy and international management at the INSEAD business school. http://www.blueoceanstrategy.com
Continuous competition in a market will lead to price war and oversupply of commoditized products. Brand loyalty will start to decline and profits start shrinking, ending in a bloodbath which is termed as Red Ocean.
The Blue Ocean is a market space which is untested and uncontested. Players trapped in the Red Ocean should seek a path to exit towards the Blue Ocean.
There are four principles in the Blue Ocean strategy:
1. Reconstruct market boundaries
This is to look out for spaces where current competition does not see. You may still be in the same trade, but if you manage to create a new need for people, You will see demand naturally increase. Take the example of the Japanese hairdresser franchise QB House. In the haircut industry, there are different level target markets. Budget conscious men would go for an economical haircut at the barber. More image conscious individuals would go for average class saloon. Other individuals would not even blink an eye on the high price they pay at an upclass hair saloon. QB House ingeniously created a haircut service which fuses between barber and hair saloon. It created a concept with the budget conscious individuals in mind, to provide a hair saloon quality hairstyle at a barbershop price. It revolutionize the idea of haircut and create a new need, thus found itself in the midst of the Blue Ocean where there is no existing similar provider. Although over time, it may see more copycats coming into the sector, it is important to have the first mover advantage. When it sees its Blue Ocean slowly becoming red over time, it must then seek again for the next Blue Ocean. This is what we term as constant Innovation.
2. Focus on the big picture, not the numbers:
The lifeline of a business is always its bottom line revenue and profits. However, business owners must not be led by the nose in its budget. They have to look beyond the current scenario and paint a bigger picture for the business. This usually involves time and more investments into uncharted areas and most people easily shrug off such ideas.
3. Reach beyond existing demand:
Tata Group launched the world's cheapest car, Nano, on 26 Feb 2009, just one year after acquiring two luxurious automobile brands, Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motors at a price tag of US$2.3 Billion. The acquisition allows Tata an immediate access to the premium market of the automobile industry. However, it was not sitting still. It had been eyeing on the untapped middle class families in India, typically seen riding precariously on two wheelers, with children. With more than 100 million of such families in India alone, pricing the Nano at a mere US$2200, it is a sure hit in this sector.
Another great revolutionary product is the Wii TV console game player, launched by Nintendo. For many years, Nintendo has been in a distant far in the lucrative game console market, from Sony's PlayStation and Microsoft's XBox. Nintendo tweaked the idea on gaming by simplifying its console that could entice both young and old in the family to play.
4. Get the strategic sequence right:
In all aspects when seeking for the Blue Ocean, you must be pragmatic. You may be just building castles in the air if certain principles are not adhered to.
- Buyer utility: Is there an exceptional buyer utility in your business idea?
- Price: Is your price practical in the market? You have to ask yourself why your customer would want to pay you that amount you have defined for your product. Existing competitors and substitutes must be also be compared with.
- Cost: Is your cost of production able to meet the expected profit margin?
- Adoption: Why would people want to adopt your new idea? Humans tend to have the comfort-zone intuition. It is not easy to persuade people to change their habits to adopt a new style. This may be the biggest hurdle amongst the four. Awareness and education may be necessary to assure customers.
Continuous competition in a market will lead to price war and oversupply of commoditized products. Brand loyalty will start to decline and profits start shrinking, ending in a bloodbath which is termed as Red Ocean.
The Blue Ocean is a market space which is untested and uncontested. Players trapped in the Red Ocean should seek a path to exit towards the Blue Ocean.
There are four principles in the Blue Ocean strategy:
1. Reconstruct market boundaries
This is to look out for spaces where current competition does not see. You may still be in the same trade, but if you manage to create a new need for people, You will see demand naturally increase. Take the example of the Japanese hairdresser franchise QB House. In the haircut industry, there are different level target markets. Budget conscious men would go for an economical haircut at the barber. More image conscious individuals would go for average class saloon. Other individuals would not even blink an eye on the high price they pay at an upclass hair saloon. QB House ingeniously created a haircut service which fuses between barber and hair saloon. It created a concept with the budget conscious individuals in mind, to provide a hair saloon quality hairstyle at a barbershop price. It revolutionize the idea of haircut and create a new need, thus found itself in the midst of the Blue Ocean where there is no existing similar provider. Although over time, it may see more copycats coming into the sector, it is important to have the first mover advantage. When it sees its Blue Ocean slowly becoming red over time, it must then seek again for the next Blue Ocean. This is what we term as constant Innovation.
2. Focus on the big picture, not the numbers:
The lifeline of a business is always its bottom line revenue and profits. However, business owners must not be led by the nose in its budget. They have to look beyond the current scenario and paint a bigger picture for the business. This usually involves time and more investments into uncharted areas and most people easily shrug off such ideas.
3. Reach beyond existing demand:
Tata Group launched the world's cheapest car, Nano, on 26 Feb 2009, just one year after acquiring two luxurious automobile brands, Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motors at a price tag of US$2.3 Billion. The acquisition allows Tata an immediate access to the premium market of the automobile industry. However, it was not sitting still. It had been eyeing on the untapped middle class families in India, typically seen riding precariously on two wheelers, with children. With more than 100 million of such families in India alone, pricing the Nano at a mere US$2200, it is a sure hit in this sector.
Another great revolutionary product is the Wii TV console game player, launched by Nintendo. For many years, Nintendo has been in a distant far in the lucrative game console market, from Sony's PlayStation and Microsoft's XBox. Nintendo tweaked the idea on gaming by simplifying its console that could entice both young and old in the family to play.
4. Get the strategic sequence right:
In all aspects when seeking for the Blue Ocean, you must be pragmatic. You may be just building castles in the air if certain principles are not adhered to.
- Buyer utility: Is there an exceptional buyer utility in your business idea?
- Price: Is your price practical in the market? You have to ask yourself why your customer would want to pay you that amount you have defined for your product. Existing competitors and substitutes must be also be compared with.
- Cost: Is your cost of production able to meet the expected profit margin?
- Adoption: Why would people want to adopt your new idea? Humans tend to have the comfort-zone intuition. It is not easy to persuade people to change their habits to adopt a new style. This may be the biggest hurdle amongst the four. Awareness and education may be necessary to assure customers.
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